Muhamad Yehia
Germany’s election reshapes the political scene, with the far right and far left parties on the rise and coalition chaos and uncertainty for the minnows on the cards. Will CDU’s Merz be able to form a coalition until Easter?
After tens of millions of Germans cast their ballots in today’s federal election — or some 84% of the country’s nearly 60 million eligible voters — the latest exit polls suggest that the CDU/CSU are in the lead to govern with around 28.5%.
The centre-right party is followed by the far-right AfD party, which has seen a jump of about 10% since the 2021 elections, now standing at around 20.5%.
Not all votes have been counted yet, but the result isn’t expected to change significantly, meaning the country is again headed to a coalition government, as winning an absolute majority has never happened in Germany’s modern history.
?What is ahead for CDU/CSU and its leader Friedrich Merz, and what are the four main takeaways from tonight’s election
1. Clear lead for CDU/CSU, no coalition with AfD in sight
Despite the CDU’s lead in the election, they will still need one or two coalition partners to govern. If the far-right gains around 1.5% by the time all votes are counted, the CDU and its sister party CSU could, in theory, form a coalition with the AfD.
However, CDU’s Merz has once again ruled out a black-and-blue or “Midnight” coalition, giving himself until Easter to find a working solution.
In German public broadcaster ARD’s Berliner Runde post-election debate on Sunday night, all main candidates gathered to discuss key takeaways
Merz reaffirmed his stance against forming a coalition with the far-right AfD, stressing that their policies do not align with those of the CDU/CSU.
?Another ‘traffic-light’ scenario
The previous government, made up of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD, the Greens, and the liberal FDP, collapsed after Scholz fired his Finance Minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner in November last year.
The coalition was overshadowed by ongoing infighting, which has been reflected in the parties’ losses at the ballot box.
To secure a 50% majority and form a government, the leading party in tonight’s election, the CDU, may not be able to do so with just one partner. This raises the possibility of another three-party coalition
If the FDP fails to clear the 5% threshold, the only remaining viable coalition partners for the CDU/CSU would be the Greens and the SPD.
Although the CDU ruled out a coalition with the Greens throughout the entire election campaign, CDU sister party CSU’s leader Markus Söder has now stated on ARD’s Berliner Runde that such a coalition is no longer off the table.
The Greens’ chancellor candidate Robert Habeck has also stated that a coalition with the CDU isn’t off the table for him and his party. SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz has merely said that he will not lead any such coalition talks, as he “applied to become chancellor”.
3. Far right and far left show serious gains
Unlike in previous elections, parties at the far end of the political spectrum have gained momentum this year.
The far-right AfD has risen by more than 10% since the last federal election in 2021, while the far-left Die Linke or The Left party has also made significant gains.
In 2021, The Left managed to enter the Bundestag despite winning only 4.9% of the second votes. The party secured three direct mandates and thus benefited from the basic mandate clause, which bypassed the 5% threshold.
As a result, it received 39 seats in proportion to its second vote share and was able to remain in parliament with full faction status.
The AfD has focused its campaign on the economy and migration, while the far left has emphasised social issues like rent caps.
According to ZDF, voters ranked “refugees and asylum” as more important than “pensions” or “climate protection”. Even greater importance was placed on “peace and security,” “economy” and “social justice
Potential loss for minnows 4
In Germany, a party must secure more than 5% of the total vote or win at least three direct mandates in individual constituencies to gain seats in the Bundestag.
For small parties like the liberal FDP, the far-left Die Linke or The Left party, and the leftist-conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), tonight’s election could determine their political survival.
While the far left has all but secured its spot in the Bundestag, the future of the BSW and FDP remains uncertain for now.
The FDP is currently polling at around 4.6%, while the BSW stands at approximately 4.9%. With not all votes counted yet, there is still potential for fluctuation for both parties in either direction.
By Sunday night, FDP’s Lindner said he was leaving politics, following a comment earlier in the night that the party “will need to reform itself”.
“Now I am retiring from active politics. With only one feeling: gratitude for almost 25 intensive, challenging years full of design and debate”, Lindner said.